"According to preliminary information, economic growth was at 4.8% in 2018 and the main driver was net exports,"- says the governor of National Bank of Georgia (NBG) Koba Gvenetadze.
In 2018, Georgian exports increased by 22.9% to $3,362,000,000. This is the largest amount of exports in Georgian history.
At the same time, imports of goods went up by 14.7%. In total Georgia has spent over over $9.12 billion USD on imports in 2018.
"In 2018, real GDP growth was characterized with relatively high variation. While the growth in the first half of the year was 5.4%, in the second half it reduced to 4.3%. This was driven by both domestic and external factors. Among domestic factors, weakening fiscal stimulus, including infrastructure projects, was notable. As for external factors – in the second half of 2018 money transfers and tourism revenues reduced from Turkey and Iran, where the economic situation has deteriorated. According to current estimates, real GDP growth in 2018 totaled 4.8%,"- is stated in a report published by NBG.
NBG is also releasing a forecast of economic growth prospects in 2019. Naional Bank forcasts 5% GDP growth for 2019.
"The NBG’s forecast of real GDP growth for 2019 remains the same at 5%. Despite higher risks of softening economic growth, in the baseline scenario it is expected that the recent slowdown will be temporary. This view is based on the assumption that moderate growth of credit activity will continue and fiscal stimulus will be of the planned size. According to the current forecast, net exports, consumption and investments will all positively contribute to real GDP growth. According to the baseline scenario, these will be supported by capital spending of the government and a moderate growth of loans. Recent estimates show that deviation of aggregate demand from the potential level of output deteriorated somewhat in the second half of the last year, but it is expected that moderately high economic growth will continue and output gap will close within the next two years."
